Expectations=Present Evaluations…Its 2004 all over again

In 2004, TNS Canada produced its first Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and it is interesting that its recent results mirror those from its first surveys. What, if anything, can this tell us about the state of the economy? Canadians, while deeply affected by the recession, regained a lot of their confidence in the economy in [...]

Wisdom of crowds, not economists

Why do economic forecasts require so much adjustment if they are based on reliable economic models? Last week, for example, the release of Statistics Canada figures for July showed a decline in consumer spending that fuelled speculation that the recovery in Canada may be stalling. Predictions for the rest of the year have been adjusted [...]

Confidence is an Elusive… but important… Concept

Yesterday, the Conference Board of Canada issued a news release indicating that confidence in Canada “took a dive in April”. This counters somewhat the findings from the most recent TNS poll which shows confidence at its highest level since April 2008. Survey timing, question items, and index construction, no doubt explain the difference but what [...]