Two Things to Take Away From the Recent Poll Failure? in Alberta

There will be much hand wringing, considerable hyperbole, and lots of pseudo theories/ explanations for why the polls did not foresee the Conservative majority coming in the 2012 Alberta provincial election. Some attention will inevitably be placed on the methodological rigour of the polling methods but the size of the difference between the polls and the outcome is stunning. [...]

The Kind of Campaign that Makes You Think They Don’t Matter

The poll results today (the definitive Nanos tracking) tell us that nothing has happened in this campaign. The parties remain in the same order and with almost the same share of decided voters as they did when the campaign was launched. As much as the media hang on every movement in the polls (and hope [...]

Short-Term Impacts of Disasters on Public Opinion: The Nuclear Issue

The evolving nuclear disaster in Japan raises an important question? How long do these events continue in our collective memory. Are they enduring or does our heightened fear give way to other salient issues? We can only give our attention to a limited set of issues so without constant reminders, it may not be surprising [...]

What happens when we get it wrong?

Sometimes polls seem to get it wrong. The election result turns out differently than we expected. The product fails at launch despite assurances that it is a winner. The heralded policy proposal is met with scepticism when released publicly. Consider the story that Kim Dedeker told about research failure in 2006: “It’s when we field [...]

Public Support for Legalized Prostitution… a look at the POR

The Ontario Superior Court shook things up with its decision that the current laws that constrain an otherwise legal activity (selling sex for money) “force prostitutes to choose between their liberty interest and their right to security of the person.” The decision will likely be appealed but it is worth considering how the issue will [...]