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Second Term Presidents: Obama’s Legacy

November 5, 2012

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American’s are finalizing their decision on who will become the next President but it is worth considering what this election means for Obama. Can he achieve a second term and what does it mean if he does not? Incumbents have an inherent advantage when it comes to re-election and Presidents have a fairly high success […]

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Beating a Dead Horse: Election Polling is Flawed

September 8, 2012

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Just this week, we got another pseudo apologetic letter about why election polling is sometimes (perhaps even often) inaccurate. This time it was from Peter Loewen (an Assistant Professor of UofT). His article in the Ottawa Citizen is here but, it like many similiar pieces completely misses the point. Pollsters are in a unique an […]

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Two Things to Take Away From the Recent Poll Failure? in Alberta

April 24, 2012

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There will be much hand wringing, considerable hyperbole, and lots of pseudo theories/ explanations for why the polls did not foresee the Conservative majority coming in the 2012 Alberta provincial election. Some attention will inevitably be placed on the methodological rigour of the polling methods but the size of the difference between the polls and the outcome is stunning. […]

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Voting Early is Not a Sign of Electoral Health

November 18, 2011

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During the last Canadian federal election campaign, there was considerable speculation about the large increase in turnout at the advance polls. At the time I speculated that the media and other commentators were wrong in suggesting the increase was a product of the campaign (e.g. greater interest). I thought I would revise the issue and see if we […]

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