Tag Archives: elections

Beating a Dead Horse: Election Polling is Flawed

September 8, 2012

4 Comments


Just this week, we got another pseudo apologetic letter about why election polling is sometimes (perhaps even often) inaccurate. This time it was from Peter Loewen (an Assistant Professor of UofT). His article in the Ottawa Citizen is here but, it like many similiar pieces completely misses the point. Pollsters are in a unique an […]

Continue reading...

Voting Early is Not a Sign of Electoral Health

November 18, 2011

0 Comments


During the last Canadian federal election campaign, there was considerable speculation about the large increase in turnout at the advance polls. At the time I speculated that the media and other commentators were wrong in suggesting the increase was a product of the campaign (e.g. greater interest). I thought I would revise the issue and see if we […]

Continue reading...

Sometimes we Should Not Learn from History Because it does Not Repeat Itself

October 3, 2011

2 Comments


Living in a First-Past-the-Post electoral system leads to a number of interesting intellectual exercises for those interested in politics. Consider, for example, the current Ontario provincial election. A recent poll (ending November 3) by Nanos Research shows that  the Conservatives (36.4) are statistically tied with the incumbent Liberals (35.9). Does this mean that they will […]

Continue reading...